Microsoft introduces “Aurora,” an advanced AI model revolutionizing weather prediction by accurately forecasting extreme weather events. With 1.3 billion parameters and trained on over a million hours of diverse weather and climate simulations, Aurora outperforms traditional numerical weather prediction systems. It addresses the urgent need for more accurate forecasting amid escalating severe weather patterns fueled by climate change, exemplified by Storm Ciarán’s unexpected and devastating impact across Europe in fall 2023.
Aurora’s versatility extends beyond conventional weather variables, forecasting atmospheric phenomena like temperature, wind speed, air pollution levels, and greenhouse gas concentrations. Its extensive pretraining on diverse datasets enhances predictive capabilities, even in data-sparse regions or during extreme weather conditions. Operating at a high spatial resolution of 0.1°, Aurora captures intricate atmospheric processes, providing detailed insights into weather dynamics.
The groundbreaking capabilities of Aurora promise not only more accurate weather forecasts but also a deeper understanding of climate change’s impact. Microsoft envisions Aurora as a catalyst for transforming Earth Sciences, potentially leading to comprehensive models encompassing the entire Earth system. This innovation could democratize access to accurate weather and climate information, benefiting vulnerable regions and sectors like agriculture, transportation, and disaster preparedness.
As Microsoft pioneers Aurora’s development, the model heralds a new era in weather prediction and climate science. By providing timely, accurate, and actionable insights, Aurora aims to empower decision-makers and communities worldwide to better adapt to the challenges posed by climate change. With its potential to revolutionize weather forecasting and climate research, Aurora represents a significant step toward addressing the impacts of extreme weather events on a global scale.
