The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has proposed a fiscal strategy to counteract the environmental and economic damages caused by artificial intelligence (AI). The agency recommends imposing a green tax on AI-related carbon emissions and excess profits to reflect the environmental costs associated with AI technology. AI’s rapid development consumes substantial energy, with data centers’ power demand expected to surge by 160% by the end of the decade, leading to a significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions.
Generative AI, such as ChatGPT, particularly contributes to high power consumption and proportional carbon emissions. For instance, a single query on ChatGPT uses about ten times the electricity of a Google search. This significant energy use is a concern, and the IMF’s green tax aims to account for these external environmental costs. However, the IMF does not support a direct tax on AI investments, fearing it would hinder technological adoption and disadvantage countries that implement such measures.
The IMF also addresses the broader economic implications of AI, particularly job displacement and wealth inequality. AI automation threatens both white-collar and blue-collar jobs, with an estimated 60% of jobs in the U.S. and U.K. exposed to AI and half of those negatively impacted. To mitigate these effects, the IMF suggests increasing capital income taxes and implementing an excess profits tax, shifting the tax burden as labor dynamics evolve.
Additionally, the IMF sees potential in using AI to enhance tax enforcement and redesign the tax system. AI could revolutionize tax policies, such as creating personalized progressive value-added taxes or real-time market-value-based property taxes. While acknowledging the uncertainty of AI’s future impacts, the IMF emphasizes the need for adaptive policies to navigate and mitigate AI’s economic and environmental consequences.
