Ukraine’s military intelligence anticipates a significant escalation in Russia’s billion-dollar disinformation campaign, known as “Maidan-3,” aimed at undermining support for Kyiv and sowing discord among Ukrainian citizens. The campaign, initiated by Russia in November, is projected to intensify between March and May, with the goal of spreading narratives detrimental to global security and instigating conflicts, both within Ukraine and internationally. Russia’s strategy involves destabilizing Ukraine and exploiting the resulting chaos to inflict damage on the Ukrainian military, particularly on the eastern frontlines.
The disinformation operation, estimated to have cost Russia $1.5 billion, targets various platforms, including the messaging app Telegram, where $250 million has allegedly been spent to disseminate anti-Ukrainian narratives. As part of the campaign, Russia aims to erode trust between Ukrainian citizens, the military, and Western allies, while also employing spies to discredit prisoner exchange efforts and organize protests worldwide. Although no independent confirmation of the campaign’s cost has been provided, Ukraine views Maidan-3 as a sophisticated and expensive endeavor by Russian intelligence.
The disinformation efforts extend beyond Ukraine’s borders, as evidenced by attempts to incite unrest among Polish farmers protesting Ukrainian agricultural imports. While there is no conclusive evidence linking Russia to the protest incitement, Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has cautioned against narratives that could tarnish the country’s reputation. Moreover, French officials have warned of escalating disinformation efforts by Russia in Poland, Germany, and France, with the Kremlin seeking to amplify its perceived success in the Ukrainian conflict and undermine Western support for Kyiv.
Ukraine, recognizing the gravity of the disinformation threat, urges both its Western allies and its citizens to counter Russian propaganda effectively and enhance security measures. The country has entered into multiple security agreements with Western partners to address cyber threats and combat disinformation. As Europe braces for the EU Parliament elections in June, the continent remains vulnerable to information warfare, highlighting the urgent need for concerted efforts to safeguard democratic processes and resist external manipulation.
